Preliminary results of the 1995 census indicate the total population
of the CNMI   at 58,846 for an increase of 37.8 percent over the 1990
population of 43,345. Saipan registered 89.5 percent of those recorded
while Tinian and Rota represented 4.5 and 6.0 percent respectively. Over
the five year period between 1990 and 1995 the average annual growth was
equal to 7.1 percent per year. Over the 15 year period since the 1980
census which enumerated 16,780 persons, the population has increased 250.7
percent or by an average of 16.7 percent annually. Unprecedented economic
growth and the concomitant necessity for nonresident workers accounts for
the large increase in population.
     In 1995, 81 percent of the population (47,656 persons) resided in
12,060 housing units while 11,190 or 19 percent lived in 212 group quarters
or barracks. In 1995, 2,497 housing units were classified as vacant, (many
of which were  under construction at the time of the census). The total
number of units occupied, vacant or classified as group quarters was
14,769. Over the five year period (‘90 - ‘95), the number of occupied
housing units increased 75.5 percent from 6,873 to 11,060 in 1995 and
increased 257.5 percent since 1980.
     In terms of the ethnicity of the population, the Chinese registered
the greatest gain since 1990  at 137.3  percent, (6,837 Chinese in 1995).
This large percentage increase is a result of a rather small number of
Chinese (2,881) in the base year of 1990.  The Chinese represented 11.6
percent of the total population. “Whites”  increased by 130.1 percent for a
total of 2,013 persons, (a person is considered white if one is occidental
or of European origin, a Caucasian {caucasoid}). This group represented 3.4
percent of the total population.  It should be noted  that the term
“American” or “European” does not represent an ethnic group.
     People of Chamorro or Carolinian ethnicity represent 34.3 percent of
the 1995 total.  The Chamorro and Carolinian population combined increased
by 22.4 percent  from 17,181 in 1990 to 20,161 in 1995. The breakdown of
the population in descending order is as follows: Filipino - 19,868,
(33.75%); Chamorro - 17,120 (29.1%); Chinese - 6,837, (11.6%);  Micronesian
- 4,818, (8.2%); Carolinian - 3,041, (5.2%);  Korean - 2,325 (3.95%); White
- 2,013, (3.4%);   Japanese - 1,047, (1.8%) and all others - 1,777, (3.0%).
The only group that registered a decline over the past five years was the
Korean segment which dropped 9.57 percent from that recorded in 1990.
     United States citizens totaled 27,489 - (46.7%); non U. S. citizen
permanent  residents,   - 3,405 - (5.8 %); temporary residents, (non U. S.
citizens) - 27,952 - (47.5 %).
     The average daily visitor population of 6,200 (1995) is not included
in the above.
    The islands now sustain the largest population since the war years of
1944 when, for a brief period the temporary population reached a total of
108,065 but declined daily as a result of hostilities.
Assumptions For Projecting The Population
   The mathematical factors and growth rate estimates for projecting the
population normally would start with the most recent census as the base
year. To this one would add births, subtract deaths, add “in migration” and
subtract “out migration.” However, in the case of the latter, this
information is not known for the Commonwealth.  The following projection to
the year 2001 basically utilizes - with one exception- the same annual
percentage increases as occurred between 1990 and 1995. One notable
exception being the rate of growth of Chinese nonresident workers which has
been estimated at 3.5 percent per year rather than the abnormally high
average annual growth rate of 27.46 percent experienced between 1990 and
1995.
     Nonresident workers within the garment industry are not expected to be
present in the Commonwealth in any large number after 1998. It is expected,
however, that investors in the tourist sector will continue to find the
CNMI offering profitable opportunities. The loss of garment workers could
be offset by additional nonresident hotel workers and others in the tourist
sector. These two possible events, namely, the loss of the garment industry
and the gain of additional hotels illustrates the difficulty in making
future projections for specific sectors of the economy. In terms of making
up revenues lost with the departure of garment manufacturing, it has been
estimated that an additional 137,100 annual tourist arrivals over the total
number of visitors in 1995, (total arrivals 783,700 annually) would
compensate for the loss of revenue from this manufacturing sector.
     This economic strategy assumes no significant change in the
competitive position of the Commonwealth’s tourist economy; that the
exchange rate between the U. S. dollar and Asian currencies will continue
to offer lucrative values for the visitor; the projected hotel rooms will
be available; the Commonwealth will continue to control immigration; the
minimum wage will have reached parity with the U. S. dollar; no natural
disasters will have occurred to disrupt the economy; the Internal Revenue
Code will be applied with rebates permitted at approximately the present
rate as investment incentives; duty free entry into the United States
market of CNMI manufactured products will continue to be permitted; the
existing garment industry in the Commonwealth will relocate elsewhere
starting around 1998. The legislature will act to improve the investment
climate of the Commonwealth and will not enact laws detrimental to business
investment and growth and:
- The indigenous population of Chamorros and Carolinians has been projected
to increase annually by 4.1 and 0.36 percent respectively per year to 2001.

- Other United States citizens are projected to increase by 26 percent
annually. While this may appear to be a large percentage increase this
segment of the population was rather small at the time of the base year and
accounted for only 3.4 percent of the total population or 2,162 people
(1995).
- Micronesian entries from Palau, the Federated States and the Marshall
Islands and / or their births in local hospitals have been projected to
increase by 7.8 percent.
- This strategy utilizes the low and high scenarios for visitor entry
projections developed by the Marianas Visitors Bureau for the year 2001 and
assumes the hotel rooms necessary to accommodate this increase will be
available and that the additional non-resident workers necessary to staff
the facilities will be permitted entry into the Commonwealth. The low
projection for the average daily visitor population in the Commonwealth by
the year 2001 has been projected to be 10,000 with a total of 6,950 hotel
rooms required.  The high projection anticipates an average daily visitor
population of 13,100 visitors and a requirement for 9,115 hotel rooms.
These projections are for air arrivals only and assume an average length of
stay of 3.5 days and a hotel / guest room ratio of 1.8.
An Examination Of The Possible Future Implications Of A Larger Population
By The Year 2001
     In projecting the population growth to the year 2001 the following
assumptions have been made. With the exception of the average annual growth
rate of the Chinese, the annual percentage increases experienced within
other ethnic groups over the previous five years will remain essentially
the same over the next five years. The average annual rate of growth of the
Chinese will not remain as in prior years and will decline to an annual
growth rate estimated at 3.5 percent. Finally, the economy of the three
principal islands in the Commonwealth will grow at an annual rate equal to
that of the previous five years. Additionally,  the projection is based on
an evaluation of the present general economy of the Commonwealth and does
not take into account, or make provision for, the effect of sharp changes
in the Northern Mariana’s economy or its major Asian tourist markets not
presently foreseeable. One major factor that may require a revision of the
projections at a later date would be the advent of casinos on Tinian. Such
development would require a complete revision upward of the population
projection.
     Having stated the above - and applying the average annual percentage
increase in the population between the years 1990 and 1995 when projecting
these data to the year 2001 - such a forecast indicates the population
could be approximately 87,000 with the Chamorro and Carolinian population
accounting for 28.3 percent or 24,650 persons.
     Certainly no one has a crystal ball to peer into the future, and to
the extent that any of the above percentage growth factors are in error,
then the final estimated population will be wrong. Hazardous as it is, it
is an improvement over the intuitive method which some would employ without
any attempt to measure the factors involved. The following projections
could be considered indicative if the average annual percentage of growth
for each ethnic group, (other than that of the Chinese) remains similar to
that witnessed over the previous five year period. With the above
qualifying proviso, the composition of the  population could be as
follows:  Filipino - 31,656; Chamorro - 21,800; Chinese - 8,402; Whites -
8,051;  Micronesians - 7,545; Carolinian - 3,108; Korean - 2,531; Japanese
- 1,550 and all others - 2,377.  In terms of population density, Saipan
would increase from 1,133 people per square mile in 1995  to 1,676 by the
year 2001; Tinian would go from 67 to 99 and Rota from 107 to 158 people
per square mile as we enter the first day of the first year of the 21st
century.  This growth would amount  to an increase of population density of
47.9 percent by 2001 not including the average daily visitor population in
the islands.
     The year 2001 is not too far off - it is as close to us as the Gulf
War is in the past. Projections are only guideposts pointing the way if the
rate of growth that occurred over the “measured past”  - in this case five
years - was to continue at the same rate over the next five years - where
would we be? The question must be posed - would that future be in the best
overall interest of the islands? As everyone knows, there is a direct
correlation between the size of a population and the number of medical,
education, public safety and other public service personnel required in a
society. Adequate power, water, solid waste disposal, vehicle traffic,
schools,  etc.,  are all issues to be addressed. Often two schools of
thought oppose each other over the issue of continued growth. One group
considers such increases a recipe for achieving ever more business
opportunities and larger profits while the other side would probably like
to retain some semblance of the status quo if not an actual reduction. The
difficulty arises when trying to achieve some sort of balance between the
two that, if not satisfy, will placate both sides.
      One reason the Commonwealth was permitted control of its immigration
was to avoid the possibility of being overwhelmed as a result of United
States immigration quotas as applied to Asian countries. It was feared that
immigrants entering the United States would select the new Commonwealth as
a port of entry to the United States and very possibly a place of residence
because of the island’s proximity to their home country.
     Since 1981, three and one half million  people from Asia alone have
immigrated to the United States according to the Visa Section of the U. S.
Department of State. If only  5 percent, or 175,000 people, settled in the
Commonwealth - there would be standing room only.  The total population,
including the indigenous  would be around 233,846.
     Considering only immigration to the United States from Asia for the
period 1981 thru ‘93, the ethnic composition of the Commonwealth would have
changed radically if you except the premise that five percent of the total
would stop off and remain in the islands. Using State Department ratios to
estimate the ethnic mix, there could have been about: 37,200 Filipinos;
22,900 Chinese; 18,200 Koreans; 18,300 from India; 17,900 Vietnamese; 7,200
from Hong Kong; 3,600 Japanese and 49,700 from other Asian countries or a
total of 175,000 people as opposed to only 18,300 indigenous people.
 Had U. S. immigration laws  been applied in the Commonwealth it is also
quite likely that by 1995 the indigenous population would comprise only 8.6
percent of the total population and would continue to decline as a percent
of the total  in future years.

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