A census provides an accurate “snapshot” of a society at a precise
point in time and it is the only time when an accurate enumeration of the
population is undertaken.     When the 1990 census was taken the total
employed labor force in the Commonwealth was 25,965 within a total
population of 43,345 which included nonresident workers but omitted the
average daily tourist population. At the time the total indigenous
population was 17,181 persons, or 39.6 percent of the Commonwealth’s total
resident and nonresident population.
     In that census year the indigenous labor force (both those employed
and unemployed), between the ages of 16 and 65 years numbered 7,476 of
which it was estimated that 4,777 (63.8 percent) were employed. The
remaining 2,699 (36.2 percent) consisted of students, housewives and others
not employed. In that census year, the CNMI  government’s retirement fund
reported having 3,959 active members consisting of both indigenous and non
indigenous employees.
     In 1990 there were 21,188 nonresident workers which made up 81.6
percent of the labor force. Considering the annual rate of growth of the
indigenous population as measured between 1973 and 1990 and assuming that
this rate of growth continues, there will not be a sufficient local
population  within the indigenous labor force to staff the 25,965 available
jobs in the Commonwealth that existed in 1990 until well into the next
century.
     While the current economic slowdown has resulted in the reduction of
some nonresident workers, particularly in the construction sector, (and
soon in the garment industry), from the recorded high point of a few years
ago, the above population growth estimate does provide an important
indicator of the Commonwealth's desperate need for outside labor to
supplement the supply of available local indigenous labor. Depending upon
the annual rate of population growth within the indigenous population, a
growth rate of 1.85 percent will result in  92,783 indigenous persons of
all ages in the year 2080 with the 1990 employment level  reached around
that time. A three percent growth rate, which is extremely unlikely, will
result in reaching the 1990 employment level by the year 2050.
     The year 2050 is as distant from the present as 1940 is in the past.
The year 2080 lacks only twenty years from the end of the next century and
is as close to us today as the year 1910 is a quondam period. To recall
those distant times in another way, 1910 is the year Japan annexed Korea.
A  distant time of the German period when the population was 3,029. The
year 1940 was within the Japanese period when the population was 47,000,
mostly Japanese.
     One factor which could take the pressure off and shorten the time for
the indigenous population to catch up is to adjust the base year
calculation (25,965) and lower the number of workers, which may be exactly
what will occur if more garment factories close. One firm that has
announced it’s closing had some 550 employees on its payroll in 1990.
Playing with the numbers, (we call it using mirrors), and deducting that
number from those employed in the base year would also require adjusting
the population growth factors there-by reducing the time period to reach
what once was the 1990 employment level. At the moment, however, it’s too
small for concern.
    Still, the nonresident worker is a valuable and indispensable element
in the Commonwealth's "new" economy and it is indeed fortunate that the
CNMI is in proximity to Asia with its surplus labor pool which can be
tapped to augment the Northern Marianas limited indigenous supply of
workers. To cite only one example of this need,  it is a generally accepted
industry "rule of thumb" that a full service resort hotel requires from one
to one and one half employees per room in the facility. Considering the
3,362 hotel rooms in the area, more than 3,500 hotel employees are required
to staff this one industry alone. This does not consider the employees
necessary to operate the remaining economic sectors of the islands.
     Had the CNMI not permitted the influx of nonresident workers, the
small indigenous population and thus a limited human resource base would
have served as an obstacle  effectively "capping" the economy  at the level
of the late 1970’s early 80’s. Very little land would have been leased as
there would be only a few local people available to develop projects which
is the reason land was leased in the first place. The availability of
imported workers helped Commonwealth land owners to create interest among
outside investors in leasing their land. Many millions were made. Over one
12 month period from 1989 to ‘90 land prices on Tinian soared from $12 per
square meter to $200.
     Of course there were other reasons which created investor interest in
the Commonwealth primarily among the Japanese and essentially as a result
of the devaluation of the dollar in relation to the yen in 1986. The
Japanese had more dollars than they could digest domestically and they went
abroad looking for opportunities in which to put this surplus to work. Huge
sums were invested in the Northern Marianas. The pace of investment between
1986 and 1991 was such that a level of development which normally would
take 20 to 25 years to occur was squeezed into the short span of five or
six years. It was largely an accident of fate that the CNMI was in the
right place at the right time and it is not likely that those days will
ever again return. Development will continue, but at a much slower and
normal pace.
     Back then, and still true today, one of the characteristics of the
U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen being that even at the present, the yen
has a greater foreign exchange value that it has domestic purchasing power.
It is the exact opposite of the dollar which buys more at home than it does
abroad.

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