It was little over one year ago that President Clinton’s letter of
May 30, 1997 to the CNMI’s chief executive stated, “I have concluded
federal immigration, naturalization, and minimum wage laws should now be
applied to the Commonwealth, as provided by the Covenant.”
     Many in the Northern Marianas, including legislators, the business
community, government officials and workers have been giving a great
deal of thought to the impact resulting from the possible loss of local
control over immigration and the imposition of the U. S. minimum wage.
Add to the above the  eventual departure of the garment industry
believed by many to occur within the next five years together with the
apprehension over the current Asian economic crisis which has had dire
consequences for the tourist sector and you have a situation of
increasing economic uncertainty. Ponder how this will impact on the
economy and eventually effect all businesses and government revenues.
    Sometimes I wonder if those in the U. S. Congress and other U. S.
government agencies advocating the “take-over” action described in the
President’s letter have given any thought to the real impact on the
future of the Commonwealth’s economy resulting from the combined
repercussion of the above. With few exceptions, as things now stand only
tourism and the multiplier effect of that sector would remain - and both
could experience more decline than we are now witnessing.
      No one knows for certain when, or if,  U. S. policy will be
imposed - but trying to plan investment for the future in view of such
uncertainty can be difficult.  I suspect that those in the United States
that have worked to remove  the current wage and immigration elements of
the economy have given little thought to the economic ramifications of
the long term transfiguration that may occur within the business
environment.
     The above measures, coming all at once, or nearly so, are severe.
Of course, some very competent local people are hard at work to devise
programs and efforts to stimulate the economy, but always there is that
lingering degree of uncertainty as to the full depth of influence the
actions by the United States Government will ultimately have on the
various alternatives that are undertaken. Certainly outside investors
must be concerned over these unknown factors and many must have adopted
a “wait and see” attitude before investing in new businesses or
expanding existing enterprises be they American or foreign owned.
     Currently all businesses are experiencing a degree of uncertainty .
. . the one single factor the business community abhors above all else.
Uncertainly erodes long term confidence in the area. Uncertainty and the
unknown create an atmosphere of instability.
      As pointed out in another column, in 1978 it was the stability
provided by United States law and the Commonwealth’s association with
America that provided the principle ingredient that encouraged foreign
investor confidence in the Northern Marianas. Today, some of these
investors must be confused since the rules for doing business may soon
change.
     I think the United States Government has an obligation to the CNMI
to first assess the impact of any federal action that would modify the
economic forces at work in the Commonwealth before any drastic changes
in the islands’ economic environment are placed into effect. I am not
aware that policy makers in the United States Government have considered
any federal program that might mitigate the eventual adverse impact of a
federal take-over of immigration. There seems to be little appreciation
of economic geography as concerns the Commonwealth and its Asian
neighbors. If geopolitics means anything it should be of interest to the
United States to maintain a presence on the doorstep of Asia and the
Marianas archipelago is the only place where this can be achieved and
this presence is best displayed in a thriving, healthy economy.

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